2021 has been an erratic year in the theatres with a number of movies bombing hard, delayed releases having too much ground to make up to break even and a few movies completely bucking the trend and making us all wonder if the box office failures were due to Covid at all. After all movies have bombed in the past, maybe there were marketing failures, maybe the trailers were bad, maybe there just wasn’t any demand for what was being put out, maybe the movies were just not very good! Let’s take a look!
Dramatic Failure.
It seems one of the biggest hit movie genres of the year is the Drama. These movies tend to have lower budgets (hovering around the 20-30 million dollars), but this year they have struggled to draw much at the box office. Many of these movies have been sent simultaneously to streaming, others attempted stay exclusive to theatres. Neither approach really turned out a winner. For example Clint Eastwood’s Neo-Western Drama “Cry Macho” released to streaming and in theatres and only pulled in $14.7m in global gross against it’s $33m production budget. That already looks bad but when you take into account P&A (Prints and Advertising) costs and the fact that they only get a portion of that gross the movie ends up as quite a bomb, at least on paper.
Another release, the long anticipated Soprano’s prequel “The Many Saints of Newark” went simultaneously to HBO Max and theatres and clawed in a mere $12.7m global gross against it’s hefty $50m budget. It seems the movie wasn’t as anticipated as perhaps the studios thought. Reaction to the movie has been mixed too between Soprano fans, but this hasn’t stopped rumour of a spin off series set between this movie and the original show.
Theatrical Exclusivity.
It is hard to determine how much of that is offset by benefit of the movie being on streaming. What we can do is make a comparison to other drama movies that did not hit streaming simultaneously. For example Ben Affleck’s crime drama “Stillwater” was exclusive to theatres and drew in $17.3m against it’s $20m budget. On the surface that looks better, but it is still a bomb and one with no benefit to streaming partners. Similarly, historical drama “Spencer” also had an exclusive theatrical release and that drew only $12.2m global gross against its $18m budget making for yet another flop.
Things didn’t go so well for Ridley Scott this year either with two movies released exclusively to theatres. His second, “House of Gucci” actually did well drawing in $111.5m but with a production budget of $75m it is still currently sitting at a loss. Scott’s first movie of the year however “The Last Duel” only brought in $30m worldwide on a whopping $100m production budget making it one of the bigger bombs of the year. That one I largely blame on poor marketing, but it is also worth noting that putting a blockbuster size budget on what was effectively a modern day version of experimental Japanese movie “Rashomon” (1950) was probably not that wise in the first place. Not that most people even knew this is what the movie was going in thanks to that marketing.
The Horror! The Horror!
One of the genres that seems perfectly suited to 2021 is the Horror movie, after all when the audience is afraid just going to the cinema, the horror movies job is done before the projector even starts. Which may explain why so many mediocre to bad horrors managed to make themselves some cash at the box office this year. Even the dreadful “Candyman” remake managed to claw itself into marginal profit. Not all horrors made a killing this year though.
One notable exception is “Resident Evil: Welcome to Racoon City”. This new reboot to the Resident Evil franchise attempted to tell the story of the first two games in compressed forms but hasn’t impressed most fans with comments complaining about changes to the characters and CGI that is little better than the graphics of those original games. The movie achieved a mere $31m global gross against it’s $25m budget. Those numbers seem pretty close but when you factor in P&A, the movie likely needed to reach $60m to draw even, leaving this another of 2021’s bombs.
Another of this years box office failures in the horror field is Edgar Wrights “Last Night in Soho”, which was one of my personal disappointments of this years cinema. The movie landed $23m worldwide gross against $43m budget marking it down as a real clanger. It’s worth noting that while “The Last Duel” was effectively (and confusingly) marketed as “Me Too – The Movie”, that would have been a fairer assessment of this movie. Both films failed, so perhaps cinemagoers are just tired of these kinds of themes in their movies. Like Racoon City though this was not a traditional horror film. So how well have they faired?
Fear Markets Itself.
The big winner of the horror box office this year was “The Quiet Place: Part II”, sequel to the breakout hit of 2018. After the success of the low budget original the sequel was guaranteed a larger budget and ended up around the $55m mark. The movie was also likely to have a lower box office than it’s predecessor, further reducing the profit. However, despite that the movie drew in $296.7m globally meaning this movie is well in profit and unsurprisingly a third movie has already been announced.
Also well into profit is the long awaited third part of the Conjuring Franchise. Many fans, including myself wondered if they would ever get back to the main series after making so many spin offs, but they did and the result was… mediocre. However the box office was not, landing $200m globally against it’s modest $39m budget. Another very healthy profit and it seems even though the Conjuring shared universe has more misses than hits as far as quality is concerned, as a franchise it is as strong as ever.
The last big winner was also one of the most disappointing movies of the year and that is “Halloween: Kills”. Where the movie did not disappoint was it’s box office scoring $130m against a $40m production budget. With a heavy sway towards domestic over international that has allowed for around about $40-50m in net profit. That is pretty healthy but it should be noted it is significantly short of the heavily hyped franchises return in 2018 which landed about double. Perhaps that is due to covid, perhaps it is because the previous instalment proved divisive amongst the fanbase or it could be because word of mouth on this one was frankly dreadful. Still, with about $70m net profit I doubt the producers are crying themselves to sleep. Halloween Ends is out next year and we will see if they can stick the landing on this trilogy.
But what about the Blockbusters?
Ultimately outside of “The Last Duel” none of the movies we’ve mentioned so far were that big of a gamble. Even the flops may yet justify their existence through streaming, physical media release and studio prestige. The Blockbusters however are a different matter. These movies often cost over $300m (including P&A) and can have break even points well above $500m. The most extreme example of this in 2021 being “No Time to Die” which had a reported break even point of $900m. It’s impossible to say if it was truly that high, but with multiple aborted releases wasting advertising money, the need to reshoot due to outdated product placement and the interest charges on the funds borrowed to make the movie those costs just kept going up, until we reached the point where the movie was looking like it may actually bankrupt Eon Productions.
That didn’t happen though because by a minor miracle the movie managed to score 770.9m global box office. Turns out despite the long delay, people still really like James Bond (Which makes the movies ending somewhat unfortunate). Perhaps unsurprisingly, $128m of that box office was from the UK. It’s worth noting though that if the report was true, the movie is still losing $130m. That’s bad, but Eon Productions lives to fight another day. Distribution company MGM however did end up selling to Amazon. We will have to see how this impacts Bond in the future. Word is though that Eon and Amazon are already at loggerheads.
A Woman Scorned.
For many blockbusters this year the story wasn’t about disaster but just underperformance and the various excuses for that disappointing box office. Many of these films found their way on to streaming alongside their theatrical release and much like with the drama’s it is difficult to judge just how much of an impact this had on the box office.
Black Widow was out early in the year and brought in $375m. For a lot of movies that would be a win, but for a $200m Marvel Cinematic Universe movie that was only two movies removed from the two billion box office of “Avengers: End Game”. It’s also worth noting that this is another movie that had aborted release dates rapidly raising the break even point. Measured on theatrical performances alone this movie is a bomb, losing Disney about $100-150m. However Disney claim the movie also made $125m on Disney+ through it’s premium access (meaning subscribers had to pay an additional fee to watch). That drags the movie to around it’s break even point, most likely still making a loss. We may never know the real story, but what we do know is that Scarlett Johansen was unhappy enough to sue Disney over the result. The case was settled out of court and ScarJo is down to work with Disney again for their movie adaptation of their “Tower of Terror” ride (Yes, that is a thing that is happening), so it seems there were no hard feelings.
The Grey Area.
Also released early in the year Ryan Reynolds vehicle “Free Guy”, was predicted to be a bomb but actually proved to have incredibly strong legs through word of mouth and just about managed to draw even. Bringing in $323.6m global against $100-125m budget. The movie was sent to streaming 45 days after it’s theatrical release, which proved to be a winning tactic (and something Warner Brothers are implementing for all movies next year). As an early release the movie was likely more impacted by Covid and it seems the IP’s new owners at Disney (The movie started production prior to the Fox deal) are very happy with it. Expect a sequel.
Another big budget question mark this year is “Godzilla Vs Kong”, which released simultaneously to streaming and managed to bring in $467.7m in worldwide gross. The budget is estimated at between $155m and $200m which means the movie likely made money, but it’s worth noting if that budget is at the maximum of that range then it probably has a small loss instead. However I’d still call this a win considering it was also on streaming and came in ahead of three MCU movies (Two of which were theatrical exclusives). Meanwhile Disney’s villain turned anti-hero movie “Cruella” landed a $228.6m box office against it’s $100m production budget. Not a bomb, but definitely a disappointment for Disney.
The Triumph Of Mediocracy.
Perhaps the most hotly debated win or loss of the year was “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” which clocked up 417.9m globally against it’s $150m-$200m budget. That left it’s end result somewhere from a $5m loss to a $70m profit and without the excuse of being on streaming simultaneously. On the domestic side it landed in between “Ant Man and the Wasp” and “Doctor Strange” with not much in it (Though Shang Chi opened in more theatres than either), but globally it fell quite a way short of either of those landing even below the original “Ant Man” movie’s draw of $518.9m. Reaction to the movie has at least been mostly positive from the public, the media proclaimed it as a triumph and Disney have already greenlit a sequel, but it is clear that Shang-Chi is not going to be a major draw for the MCU moving forward.
Speaking of worse, it is time to mention “The Eternals”. Undoubtedly the most ill advised movie the MCU has put out so far. Taking a team of drama writers with no genre experience, pairing them with an indie movie director obsessed with scenery and giving them $200m to turn a virtually unknown Jack Kirby creation into a blockbuster superhero movie may have seemed like a good idea in a boardroom at one point, probably only if a large quantity of white powder was involved or possibly some LSD. To make matters worse they marketed the movie by simultaneously calling it a “Love letter to Kirby” while also celebrating the many, many changes they made to the characters and general look of the film. Kirby was of course an artist, so taking his work and totally changing the look of it is more like hate mail than a love letter. Of course most MCU fans don’t even know who Jack Kirby was, so this isn’t the reason for the movies failure.
Epic Fail!
It’s worth noting that “Eternals” was put into production just after Warner/DC announced “The New Gods”, which was basically the better known DC version of the same thing. This led to many to speculate that the movie only existed as a counter to the moves by DC. It is perhaps amusing to note then that Warner eventually scrapped “The New Gods”. The Eternals ended up with just under $400m domestic against it’s huge $200m budget and hefty marketing costs and is looking to be the MCU’s first confirmed bomb. There is still a possibility of it drawing even but with fans and critics both turning their nose up at this one it seems unlikely and we’ll probably not see much more of this team in the future.
This was far from Disney’s worst performing movie of the year though. Competing for that title are the theme park ride turned movie “Jungle Cruise” and animated feature “Encanto”. The latter drew in $194.3m against a $120m-150m production budget and looks to lose the studio from $50m-100m. Jungle Cruise though wins the prize as the Dwayne Johnson vehicle crawled to a $210.4m global against it’s $200m budget and looking set to lose the studio a whopping $150m. You would be forgiven for thinking that was the biggest bomb of the year, but from the looks of things, that prize is instead going to go to the Matrix 4, a sequel no one asked for by a director/writer that it seems didn’t want to make it (At least going by the self referential lines in the movie). That is currently sitting at a $66m box office against it’s $175m production budget and looks like it may lose the studio around $200m. Of course the movie may have legs and surprise people but as it is available on streaming and generally considered a terrible movie that seems unlikely.
Actual Triumph!
By this point you may be starting to wonder if the age of the blockbuster is over and if studios can rake in the kind of profits that they have in the past. Well wonder no more because here comes Sony with what may be their most successful year in decades, even in the face of pandemic. It’s worth noting that Sony do not have a streaming service and so did not send any of their movies simultaneously to streaming. First up for Sony was Venom sequel “Venom: Let There Be Carnage”, which not only did well in a period where people were making constant excuses for underperformance but actually matched the domestic take of the previous non-pandemic era movie in the franchise. Racking up $501m against it’s $110m production budget it is looking set to make a net profit of around $200m for Sony. The movie itself was entertaining but not spectacular, but clearly Venom is still a popular character and frankly anything that is a part of the Spider-Brand is a safe bet these days.
A closer run thing for Sony was their attempt to repair the Ghostbusters franchise from the damaged done by the disastrous “Ghostbusters; Answer the Call” film of 2016. Keeping things simple, returning to it’s roots and offering up very well done fan service turned out to be a winning formula but fans would need a lot of convincing to give the movie a chance. Sadly every franchise movie is deeply impacted by the one before it, which mean this movie was always really going to be about fixing things than profit, so a win here is basically not losing money and getting a positive reception and the movie achieved both. Bringing in $177.5m may not sound that great but with $121.2m of that domestic and a production budget of only $75m that is enough to push the movie in to the black and make around $18m in profit. Whether the next movie in the franchise can draw serious money now that the fans are happy again remains to be seen, but overall I’d mark this down as a win.
The Other Half Of The Story
A similar win comes in the form of “Dune”, a movie that was always a big question mark. While Frank Herbert’s epic series of novels are well known to hardcore science fiction fans, to the general audience it probably seemed like a drier, less exciting rip off of Star Wars (Ironically the Star Wars was heavily inspired by Dune, but most theatre goers don’t know this). To make things more challenging the movie is only part of the story of the first book and the studio were not willing to commit to filming part two simultaneously, which meant they had to convince the audience to go and watch half a movie, without an guarantee to ever complete the story. On top of this, the movie was pushed out to streaming simultaneously with the theatrical release. Odds were against the movie and many people, including myself felt the production was doomed. It doesn’t help that director Denis Villeneuve is pretty divisive as a director with as many people hating his previous movie, “Blade Runner 2049” as loving it and that movie failing to draw even at the box office.
However despite all that, positive word of mouth and some solid trailers stirred up the audience and the movie ended up bringing in a respectable $394.6m globally against it’s $165m production budget. That pushed the movie over the finishing line and fortunately it has now been greenlit for the second part. It’s hard to say at this stage whether the franchise will expand as much as was originally intended (With multiple movies and TV shows pencilled in) but at the very least we should see the completion of the first novel and I will be eagerly looking forward to it’s 2023 release date.
Another success story of the year was “F9: The Fast Saga”, despite being openly mocked for how ridiculous the movie was it did draw in a very strong box office of $721.3m and though most of that was international (meaning a smaller cut for the studio) it still generated a healthy profit against the movies $200m-$225m budget. The overall negative reaction though may leave the next movie in a difficult situation. Not that there are really any more sharks for this franchise to jump, but maybe they’ll introduce time travel and have the team race dinosaurs or something.
And the Winner Is…
While Sony did well with Venom and Ghostbusters this year, we can’t really talk about the company without mentioning the complete obliteration of the box office this year that happened at the hands of our friendly neighbourhood web crawler. “Spider-Man: No Way Home” delivered on all it promised and more and absolutely smashed the box office with a run that may yet see it hit the $2 billion mark or at least fall not too short of it. Currently sitting at $1.2b globally after only two weeks and with many global markets still to open the sky is the limit for Peter Parker and Sony. Disney get a big chunk of this profit too thanks to their deal with Sony (and more importantly for them they get 100% of the merchandise sales), but both companies have no doubt noted that this movie has outperformed the previous three MCU movies combined box office and done it just as the new Covid variant is tearing through the world. Indeed some global markets are completely shut down right now and yet this movie is making “End Game” numbers.
While financially that is great for Sony and Disney it must leave Marvel questioning just why the rest of this years output performed so weakly by comparison. The truth to that is most likely just that Black Widow was too little too late, finally giving a movie to one of the original Avengers after that character has been killed on screen. That Shang-Chi, despite the film itself is a D List character that people that don’t read the comics likely never heard of before and the Eternals are obscure characters even for those that do regularly read comics and simply had the wrong people writing and directing it. With characters that obscure you really need someone like James Gunn that can bring out the personalities and make the relatable. It’s pretty clear moving forward that Marvel needs to get some big guns out to make up for the loss of so many of the original team. That means getting The Fantastic Four out and figuring out what to do with the X-Men. They also need to cling on to Spidey like their lives depend on it! Sony meanwhile are laughing all the way to the bank.
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